Declarer can count 6 sure winners : ♠A, ♥A K, ♦A plus ♣A K in Dummy. He must develop 3 more tricks to make his 3NT contract.
The only way to succeed in this is to lead the ♣3 from his own hand to a low club (♣4) in Dummy !
Why ??
The Opponents hold 5 clubs between them. Statistically they will be divided 3-2 about 65% of the time (2 out of 3 times).
This means that they will make one of the first three club tricks.
Wrong play
If Declarer wins the first two club tricks in Dummy with the ♣A and ♣K (at trick 2 and 3), the Opponents will win the third club trick (with the ♣Q or ♣J).
|
Declarer (W)
♠ - .. 10 9 7
♥ - A K 9 8
♦ - A Q 5
♣ - .. ..
|
♣5
| Trick 3
| ♣K
| Dummy (E)
♠ - J ..
♥ - 7 3
♦ - 8 7 4
♣ - .. .. 8 7 6 4
|
Now when the Declarer regains the lead in his own hand (probably in the 5th trick) he has no clubs left to cross over to Dummy's remaining Club winners.
Right play
Instead of giving the Opponents the third trick in clubs, Declarer must give them the first trick in clubs.
|
Declarer (W)
♠ - .. 10 9 7
♥ - A K 9 8
♦ - A Q 5
♣ - 5 ..
|
♣3
| Trick 2
| ♣4
| Dummy (E)
♠ - J ..
♥ - 7 3
♦ - 8 7 4
♣ - A K 8 7 6 ..
|
Now, when he regains the lead (probably after the Opponents have cashed their ♠Q winner) Declarer still has a vital small club in his hand (♣5) to cross over to Dummy and run off five club winners (starting with the ♣A and ♣K).
Statistics on card distribution
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