Declarer can count 11 sure winners : the A, K and Q in
Spades, Hearts and Diamonds, plus the A and K of Clubs. He
therefore needs to develop one more trick.
He can find this extra trick in either Clubs or
Diamonds.
- The Opponents have 5 Clubs, if these are
divided 3-2 the extra trick is secured in Clubs. (65% chance)
- Likewise the Opponents hold 6 Diamonds, if
these are divided 3-3 Declarer can make his 12th trick
with the 4th Diamond (♦9) in his hand.
(35% chance)
Based on statistics case a. above has a 65% chance of
success. Case b. on the
other hand occurs only 35% of the time. But you can try
both, provided you try the Clubs first ! (Because developing the Clubs will require losing 1 trick.)
a.
Therefore, after winning the first trick with
the ♥Q, play two
rounds of Clubs winning with the ♣A and ♣K in Declarer's hand. If
both opponents follow suit to the second Club trick their
Clubs were divided 3-2 and only one Opponent has on Club
left.
Declarer now plays his third and last Club (♣2) :
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One of the Opponents will win the trick, but whatever they
lead next, Declarer or Dummy will win the next trick, play
out all his sure winners, ending in Dummy to make his 12th
trick with the ♣9.
b.
If Declarer had found, when playing his second high Club
(♣K), that one Opponent
did not follow suit (their Clubs then being divided 4-1),
he would have switched to Diamonds, winning ♦A and ♦Q in Dummy first (!), then
cross over to Declarer's hand cashing the ♦K.
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