Bridge Quiz 23 Answer
Quiz 22 - Quiz Page - Quiz 24

West
A Q 10 7 4
♥ A 6
♦ 9 8 5
♣ K J 2
  East
K 9 8 2
♥ 9 7 6 4
♦ 3
♣ A 7 4 3

W N E S
1♠ - 4♠ -
Pass ! -    

Declarer (West) can count 4 possible losers.
There is one unlikely possible loser in ♠, in case Opponents' 4 cards in that suit (including the J♠) break 4-0.
Declarer can guard against this by winning the first spade trick with his Ace. If either Opponent shows out on that first trump trick Declarer can finesse the J♠ out against either Opponent.

In there is one loser Declarer can probably do nothing about.
Unless Oppenents' 6 clubs break 3-3, and Declarer's 6♥ can be discarded on Dummy's winning fourth club (7♣). But that is a long shot.

There is also one loser in , but the remaining two diamond cards in Declarer's hand can be ruffed in Dummy providing two tricks.
Declarer should do this and lead s as soon as he gains the lead (probably at trick 1), while there still are enough trumps in Dummy to ruff twice.

Finally there is also one possible loser in the ♣ suit, but Declarer has a 50/50 chance to avoid this by taking a finesse against the Opponents' Q♣.
After first ruffing two diamonds in Dummy and then drawing Opponents' four trumps :

  1. the A♣ is played from Dummy, followed by a small club.

  2. If South plays low Declarer plays his J♣, which will win if South does hold the Q♣, a 50% chance.

  3. If South plays the Q♣ Declarer catches it with his K♣ and this way always will win a third trick in clubs.

This is called an indirect finesse. It has a 50% chance of success, for it will only gain an extra trick if South (case a. below), and not North (case b.) holds the Q♣.

a. North
♣ 9 8 6
 
Declarer
♣ K J 2
  Dummy
A 7 4 3 <
  South
♣ Q 10 5
 


b. North
♣ Q 9 6
 
Declarer
♣ K J 2
  Dummy
A 7 4 3 <
  South
♣ 10 8 5