Declarer (West) can count 4 possible losers.
There is one unlikely possible loser in ♠, in case Opponents' 4 cards in that suit
(including the J♠) break 4-0.
Declarer can guard against this by winning
the first spade trick with his Ace. If either Opponent shows out on that first
trump trick Declarer can finesse the J♠ out
against either Opponent.
In ♥ there is one loser
Declarer can probably do nothing about.
Unless Oppenents' 6 clubs break 3-3, and Declarer's 6♥ can be discarded on Dummy's winning fourth club (7♣). But that is a long shot.
There is also one loser in ♦, but the remaining two diamond cards in Declarer's
hand can be ruffed in Dummy providing two tricks. Declarer should do this and lead ♦s
as soon as he gains the lead (probably at trick 1), while there still are enough
trumps in Dummy to ruff twice.
Finally there is also one possible loser in the ♣ suit, but Declarer has a 50/50 chance to avoid this by taking a finesse against the Opponents'
Q♣.
After first ruffing two diamonds in Dummy and then drawing Opponents' four
trumps :
- the A♣
is played from Dummy, followed by a small club.
- If South plays low
Declarer plays his J♣, which will win if South does hold the Q♣, a 50% chance.
- If South plays the
Q♣ Declarer catches it with his K♣ and this way always will win a third trick in clubs.
This is called an indirect finesse. It has a 50% chance of success, for
it will only gain an extra trick if South (case a. below), and not North (case b.) holds the
Q♣.
a.
| North ♣ 9 8 6
|
|
Declarer ♣ K J 2
|
| Dummy ♣ A 7 4 3 <
|
| South ♣ Q 10 5
|
|
b.
| North ♣ Q 9 6
|
|
Declarer ♣ K J 2
|
| Dummy ♣ A 7 4 3 <
|
| South ♣ 10 8 5
|
|
|