Bridge Quiz 43-7
Quiz 42 - Previous - Quiz page - Quiz 44

Bidding: (E) 2♣ - 2♠ - 6♥     Opening lead : 9♦

Trick 8 North
Q♦ 3♥ 4♦ 2♠ 5♠
4♣ 5♠

J♠
 
Dummy (W)
- K Q 10 9 4
- 9 5
- 7 2
- A J 10 6
Q♠ w   J♦ Declarer (E)
- A
- A K Q 10 8 6
- A J 10
- K 8 7
  7♠
2♣ 6♠
9♦ 2♥ 4♥ 7 ♥ 3♠

South
  Won = 8
Lost = 0

Option 2
At trick 6 Declarer leads his 7♣ to Dummy's A♣
Then (tricks 7 & 8) the K♠ and Q♠ are lead from Dummy on which Declarer discards his two remaining diamonds.
If Opponent's J♠ drops (as shown above), Dummy's 10♠ (trick 9) is the winner on which Declarer's 8♣ can be discarded. According to the statistics this has a 31% chance of success.
If Opponent's J♠ does not drop, Dummy can still lead his J♣ for a direct finesse against a possible Q♣ in North's hand.

Declarer now has all remaining winners but one : South's J♥.
This option has a better chance than Option 1 because it combines a 31% chance of dropping the J♠ with a 50% chance of a successful finesse in ♣.
As it happens in this deal both options would have been successful in winning the 6♥ contract. Here is the complete deal




NS Vulnerable North
♠  J 5 2
♥  3
♦  K Q 8 6 5 4
♣  9 5 4
  Contract (E) : 6♥
Dummy (W)
♠  K Q 10 9 4
♥  9 5
♦  7 2
♣  A J 10 6
  Declarer (E)
♠  A
♥  A K Q 10 8 6
♦  A J 10
♣  K 8 7
  ♠  8 7 6 3
♥  J 7 4 2
♦  9 3
♣  Q 3 2
South